New Polling Shows Arizona McSally/Sinema Race Back to a Dead Heat

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Polls show Democrats have a strong chance of retaking the House on Tuesday, but they shouldn't open the champagne yet-even if they do win, it could take weeks to be confirmed, according to a New York Times analysis. That's unlikely, by all accounts, because the map is so friendly for the GOP. However, misgivings rose over the president's rhetoric after a Florida man and ardent Trump supporter was charged with sending homemade bombs to more than a dozen senior Democrats and other high profile opponents.

So Democrats could win as few as 203 and as many as 262? And traditionally, the party of the sitting President has been losing seats in midterm elections. In order to snatch the majority, the Democrats need to gain 23 more seats. "These are some very close races and they are in states where Trump won big".

"They're making more money". She tried to sum up her emotions about the last two years and boiled it down to: "We're hoping and praying for a blue wave". Eighteen-year-old Katherine Morgan let out a squeak of joy when she learned that not only had the man she called already voted, but he also had a sign for Tony Evers, the Democratic gubernatorial nominee, in his front yard.

Burnishing his hard-line stand, he's suggested changing the 14th Amendment to get rid of the guarantee of birthright citizenship, has mobilized more United States troops at the border and has blasted Democrats for advocating open borders.

That environment still might not be good enough to deliver the Senate, though. "They were all wound up about that", Obama said during a stop in Miami to stump for Sen. Heidi Heitkamp, a Democrat, in North Dakota. In effect, the Democrats would need to hold on to 26 seats and add 2 more - 28 out of 35. Now 235 are held by the Republicans and 193 by the Democrats with seven vacancies due to deaths. Bloomberg photo by Aaron P. Bernstein.

In the case of the Senate, it actually bucks the historical norm, where 71 percent of the time, the incumbent party loses 6 seats. They're going to expect a Democratic majority to implement and execute on 'Medicare-for-all, ' " he says.

"He's fighting, he's great", Trump said of DeWine, before turning his attention toward Cordray, who he called a "bad guy".

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The contentious hearings for Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh, in which a Senate Democrat hid uncorroborated sexual allegations against him until the 11th hour, were a disaster for Democrats.

In the Senate, the Republicans hold a slim majority - 51:49. If Trump manages to pull off a victory in terms of retaining control of one or both Houses, it will be seen as a validation of his stand that poor migrants and refugees from other countries are a threat to the peaceful life of the American people and send out a clear message to the world on what the original "country of migrants" now thinks on that issue. Immediately, talk would turn to how the 2016 election was perhaps a fluke and to how Trump's divisiveness had backfired. The Republican has small leads among whites and other minority voters. FiveThirtyEight has them at a 1-in-8 shot.

If Democrats take back the House of Representatives, they stress they will be a check on the president, but they also have an ambitious agenda of their own. But Republicans are optimistic they can gain seats in a Senate map heavy on red states and haven't given up on holding the House.

What it would mean: Pundit chaos. But that didn't keep Trump, who has two more campaign stops in IN and Missouri tonight, from encouraging his supporters to get out to the polls.

"There is a contest of ideas going on right now, about who we are and what kind of country we are going to be". But in Tennessee, he couldn't help but shout out the Republican Senate candidate in Arizona, Rep. Martha McSally, who faces Democratic Rep. Kyrsten Sinema.

Friday's remarks in Miami were among the most fiery, as Obama mocked the Clinton email controversy of 2016 and blasted Republicans warning about the approaching migrant caravan. "We have a tremendous opportunity to make things even better". The safest bet is not to assume everything happens as neatly as you expect they will.